A new CID Gallup poll released Thursday afternoon shows President Daniel Ortega has consolidated his lead at 48 percent of the intended vote in a secret “black box” voting survey conducted among 1,217 Nicaraguans between Oct. 10-17.
The poll shows that right-wing challenger Fabio Gadea is trailing in a distant second, with 30 percent of the intended vote. Former President Arnoldo Alemán is polling third with 11 percent of the intended vote, and the other two candidates have a combined 1 percent, according to CID Gallup.
Ten percent of voters are still undecided, but even if they all voted for Gadea that doesn’t appear to be enough to allow him to make up significant ground on Ortega’s 18 point lead.
The polling numbers suggest that growing support for Ortega is due to voters’ impression that he is the most effective at resolving problems and addressing issues of poverty in Nicaragua.
Ortega, who won with a twiggy 38 percent of the vote in 2006, is apparently well positioned to win next month’s elections in the first round.
Sandinista polls give Ortega an even greater lead, suggesting his support is closer to 58 percent of the voting population, meaning he would also win a simple majority in the National Assembly.